October 20 Real Estate Market Update

Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities

All 17 cities have seen their CMI drop over the last month, meaning that power is quickly slipping away from sellers and moving towards buyers. The average CMI in the table has fallen by 13.4%, well above the 11.2% we measured two weeks ago.

Although almost all pundits predicted rates would fall in the second half of 2023, the typical 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now around 8.03%, up from 7.33 a month ago. In historical terms, this is unexceptional, but the majority of home-buyers are too youmg to have experienced rates at this level before. Unless they are working with a seller who is prepared to buy-down their interest rate, the majority of buyers lack enthusiasm to jump in at this point and many are choosing to wait until times get easier. People would still like to buy a home eventually, so latent demand is rising while actual demand falls.

Supply is now rising at the fastest rate so far this year. The combination of lower demand and higher supply is just what sellers don't want.

Well above average declines in CMI can be seen in Chandler, Cave Creek, Buckeye and Mesa. Falling but at a lower speed are Gilbert, Avondale, Glendale, Queen Creek, Fountain Hills, Tempe and Surprise.

12 out of 17 cities are still sellers markets with Surprise in the balanced zone while Buckeye, Goodyear, Queen Creek and Maricopa are all confirmed as buyers' markets